Survival of the Bloggiest

Hey there, kids! Another Mad Max post today.

I am of the opinion that things are going to change pretty drastically here in America pretty soon. How or why this change will occur is anyone's guess. There are so many Swords of Damocles hanging over our collective head that you can pretty much take your pick.

When it all stops working, what will you do?

It's all right there in the title, right? There are two ways that this shift could possibly take place:

• the Apocalypse - This is when it all stops working overnight. Something drastic happens to break the machinery of society. Maybe a stock market crash, maybe a series of devastating storms or a prolonged drought effecting crops over large areas of the country. Maybe the oil wells dry up and the highways grind to a halt. Maybe a major terrorist attack coupled with one or more of the above causes an irreparable tear in the fabric of this nation. In the Apocalypse, there is an immediate moment of emergency to which you must react. This is followed by a long period of chaos, failure of civic services (police, fire and rescue), and failure of utilities (power, water).
• the Slow Spiraling Decline - This is when society gradually breaks down. The standard of living doesn't drop all at once but slowly declines. Energy prices slowly rise, the value of the dollar declines to peso-like levels, the frequency of natural disasters rises slowly (Katrina II, III, & IV), food prices rise as droughts effect crops and expensive gas makes it more expensive to put on the shelves. There is no knock-out punch in this scenario. Civil unrest increases and harsher laws are enacted. Maybe there's another 9/11 and martial law is declared. Things get may reach a tipping point where the final bit of decline happens rapidly. This is the scenario that I think is most likely to occur.

Either scenario will require what I call the Egress. Survival in cities or suburbs will be brutal at best. The lack of access to food or means of food production coupled with the failure of the sanitation system and denser populations will mean rampant starvation and disease. You will want to get out. Only in a rural setting will you have access to the means to produce food.

Ironically enough, it will also be in a rural setting that you will most likely be able to maintain something similar to what we would associate with a modern urban lifestyle. In the country you will have access to not only solar power, but possibly hydro and/or wind power. It would be difficult to harness the wind in the city and hydro power would also be problematic assuming there even is a river that flows through your city. Others may vandalize your power station or attempt to tap into it to rob you of some juice.

In the Apocalypse scenario...

... the Egress will be a rapid, emergency evolution. You may need to gather family from all over the city - the wife at work, one kid at one school, the other at another school. You will certainly want to grab some supplies. How long will you have to live out of your car? Are the roads clear!? OMFG!! What do I do!?!

Calm down - take a deep breath. Here are some rules:

1. Panic is your number one enemy. Calm down. Take a deep breath. Think as dispassionately as possible. Having an emergency plan is a good antidote for panic.
2. Take nothing for granted. Don't assume that the roads will be clear or that you can stop for gas or food or anything. Don't assume the lights will be on when you get home, etc. At least mentally prepare for these possibilities.
3. Get thee to the country! Do you have a relative that lives out in the country? Do you have a summer cabin? Maybe even a favorite camping spot will do for a while. Try to at least ride out the initial chaos in a place that will better guarantee your family and loved ones' safety. Fresh water will also be more available in the country in all likelihood, especially if power has failed.
4. Initial Supplies. A tender balance has to be struck here. You may get caught with your pants down, so to speak, and be forced to gather necessities from all over the house. This is less than ideal. Here's a quick list that may help - it'll be a good starting point, at least:
1. Camping Supplies - tent(s), canteens, shovels, compass, matches, camp cook kits, knives, hatchets, fishing gear, etc.
2. Dried foods - rice, beans, oatmeal, etc.
3. Canned goods - any fruits and veggies will be welcomed (if you have a can opener!)
4. Water - bottled, in canteens, whatever is clever. Hopefully you have a source wherever you are going, but carrying some with you can never hurt.
5. Weapons - guns, knives, baseball bats, whatever. Not that you will be looking for trouble (quite the opposite!) but you will want to be equipped to deal with any trouble that finds you. Besides, it may become necessary to hunt for food at some point. A nice rifle will make this much easier.
6. Radio - assuming there isn't a complete collapse a radio may come in handy to gain important information ("The bridge over New River is blocked with wreckage."). Hand cranked or solar powered is preferable.
5. Water before food. The average human will die of thirst in 3-4 days, depending on a number of factors. Five days is about the outside limit of how long you can possibly go, but at this point you will be in no condition to help yourself. A person can last many weeks without food, depending on the person's metabolism and how much fat stores they have. Secure a source of water before worrying about food.
6. Shelter! Is also keenly impoortant. Depending on the season and your location shelter may be even more important than water. One night in freezing temperatures may kill you before thirst or starvation even enter the picture. Tom Brown has an excellent section in his book about temporary and even semi-permanent shelter construction techniques using no tools other than your own two hands. You can get it here.
7. Think Long Term. Once your immediate needs are taken care of think long term. Make goals that will take a while to achieve. These goals should focus on not only survival but comfort. After a week in a tent, you'll be surprised how motivated the notion of setting up a shower could make people. After a week of eating canned beans the idea of fresh tomatoes (even fresh tomatoes a month from now) will get people moving. Getting people in motion and setting goals for them means they aren't as focused on the nagging inconveniences of today. Attitiude can work wonders.
8. Longer Term Supplies - depending on your situation and opportunities it may be necessary to loot some items for the survival of your family. I only advocate this in life or death situations where civil order has collapsed. There could be an entire entry on just this topic. In fact at some point there will be.

Thats' enough for now. This should give you some food for thought, at least.

In the Slow Spiral Decline scenario...

... we have some better options, actually. In this scenario, if enough people take the actions I will advocate we may even reverse the decline if not soften the landing.

Here are some of the high level points to consider in this scenario:

1. Foresight is power. If you see this coming and you are sitting on a nice slice of land with a house that is completely off-grid with crops, a greenhouse, a biodiesel refinery, a solar array or two, a wind turbine, and a hydro plant you will be sitting very pretty. You can watch energy prices skyrocket and not care. You can watch the prices in supermarkets rise and pity those who are dependant on stores to give them everything they need.
2. Off-Grid is the Ultimate Goal. In an ideal situation you want to ween yourself from fossil fuels as much as possible. This will be good for the environment, reducing energy dependence on unstable regions, and your pocketbook. No matter what you think of anything I say here on this blog, you have to be a fool or blind to deny the fact that energy prices are going to do nothing but rise in the very near future. We are already seeing this. Crude oil prices seem to hit new highs every month. There's no reason to think this trend will reverse itself.
3. Farming is Pretty Darned Cool. Hey! Where do I get food now that the grocery store is closed? I have to grow it? I can do that? Yeah - you sure can. Crops and growing seasons will vary widely depending on your area. My ultimate goal is to get my family situated on about 10 acres of land with a greenhouse to extend our growing season. Throw into this mix some variety of animals. I'd like to have chickens for certain, maybe some goats, and even a pony or mule; maybe a horse. Regardless of the situation, apocalypse or no, it is always good to grow food. If you grow the food, you know exactly what pesticides, chemicals, and contaminants you are being exposed to. Hopefully none! In many situations, farming can even provide a source of income.
4. Knowledge is Power, Too. Read as much about your goals as possible in advance. Do this with books. Yes, books. Those funny things with pages... that's right! In the event of declining services and power outages the Internet may no longer be a reliable source of information (good or bad). Having manuals and instructive books on hand will be of incalculable value. Need to repair your PV (photovoltaic - i.e. solar power) array yourself? Well, unless you're an electrician you may need a reference source to even have a hope of doing this work yourself.
5. Have Extras. If a tool is worth having, it's worth having two of them. Also keep extra light bulbs (CF, of course!), PV panels, and other parts on hand. Keep a few boxes of nails, screws, etc in reserve. Imagine what a pain it would be to build a barn with no nails! Obviously it can be done, but it will be much easier to do if you have the supplies right there. Try to keep a reserve supply of biodiesel handy if your home uses a generator or if you have vehicles that run on it. This will not only serve well in crisis situations but in less dire straights (like helping a neighbor out of a jam).
6. Arm thyself. Think of a rifle not so much as a weapon but more like a tool. In all likelihood, this rifle will shoot nothing more sentient than a fox raiding your henhouse or a deer to put food on your table. In the unfortunate event that you find yourself in a situation where you have to defend yourself or your loved ones it will be good not to be caught empty handed.

Again - enough for now. Some food for thought. The key thing to remember about the Slow Spiral Decline is that if you can see it coming, you can get yourself set up well in advance of that tipping point.